Those expecting to see significant change in the wake of Nazarbayev’s semi-departure might be disappointed: it will be business as usual under Tokayev or whoever is elected president in June 2019.
Analysis
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The massacre in Ogossagou has prompted condemnations from the UN and member states. There is now an opportunity to make innovative and bold suggestions to prioritize POC in MINUSMA’s mandate.
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While the loss of territory is undoubtedly a significant event, the future of IS and its ability to continue functioning is more complex.
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A particularly worrisome aspect of President Iván Duque’s decision to try to undo key parts of the transitional justice system is the process of reintegrating FARC ex-combatants.
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While high profile efforts have value, what humanitarian organizations and the people they are there to help are waiting for is concrete change on the ground.
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Sudan’s protests, if nothing, have created a number of possibilities for change that would have been hard to imagine a few years ago.
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The political opening provided by Abiy has shown that measures taken by charismatic and aspiring leaders are often insufficient for addressing the legacy of deeply-rooted challenges.
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Much of the diplomatic and military responses since February have been predictable and in line with historical trends. There are, however, certain factors that make the situation in Kashmir potentially far more volatile.
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The truth and reconciliation process will allow families to know how their relatives disappeared or were killed. The complex task will be how to establish what is truthful, and what is not.
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Exaggerated fears about growing Chinese power can become a cause of conflict. The same logic applies in cyberspace.
