There is much speculation over the appointment of the next United Nations secretary-general. Many remain hopeful that the successful candidate will be a woman. According to the tradition of regional rotation, the next secretary-general should also be from Latin America. And many hope that the next secretary-general will be “bold” in the face of the crises of credibility and finance facing the UN and ongoing efforts at reform. There are currently seven declared candidates, with others bound to emerge over the next weeks and even months.

Article 97 of the UN Charter requires that secretaries-general be appointed by the General Assembly on a simple majority vote (unless the General Assembly requires a two-third majority in accordance with Article 18 of the UN Charter) upon the recommendation of at least nine members of the Security Council and with no veto from any of the permanent members. But with no clear front runner, and at a time of fracture and polarization within the Security Council, there is a risk of deadlock. This is a possibility member states should be preparing for.

As part of the selection process, the Security Council is likely to rely on the informal system of “straw votes,” which emerged after a previous deadlock in 1981. This deadlock came when Kurt Waldheim ran for an unprecedented third term. China repeatedly vetoed Waldheim’s third run because it wanted a secretary-general from a developing country. At the same time, the United States repeatedly vetoed the Tanzanian candidate Salim Ahmed Salim. After 16 rounds of formal voting and vetoes over a period of six weeks, Javier Pérez de Cuéllar emerged as the compromise candidate in December 1981, just before the end of Waldheim’s term. Read more