M16 rifles lean against the wall of a Karenni Nationalities Defense Force (KNDF) base on May 10, 2023 in Kayah State. Since the military coup in February 2021, Myanmar has spiraled into a brutal civil war, with hundreds of different armed groups engaged in conflicts throughout the country. (Photo: Daphne Wesdorp/Getty Images)
The next year could be decisive for Myanmar. After bringing the country into civil war following a 2021 coup, the military is weakening, and resistance groups are gaining ground. Only 14% of the country’s territory and 33% of its population are under stable military control. The humanitarian crisis is worsening as the military resorts to bombing civilians, and genocidal acts against the Rohingya people are again escalating.
The UN’s response to this series of crises has been criticized as “woefully inadequate.” Among those who have criticized the UN response is the Special Advisory Council on Myanmar (SAC-M), a group of independent international human rights experts that was formed in response to the 2021 coup. In this interview, SAC-M member Chris Sidoti, a former member of the UN Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Myanmar, provides recommendations on how the UN could improve its efforts to deliver humanitarian aid, politically engage, promote accountability, and protect civilians in Myanmar.
The interview was conducted by Albert Trithart,
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
What is the current state of the war and humanitarian crisis in Myanmar?
Three and a half years after the coup, we have passed a tipping point. The military is retreating to and fortifying major cities like Yangon, Mandalay, and Naypyidaw. Various resistance groups are now in control of more and more territory. The military will lose, but when that will happen is hard to predict. It’s conceivable that it could collapse completely by the first half of next year, or this could go on for another three to five years.
As the military loses control on the ground, it’s resorting more to air power. They have a “scorched earth” policy to take vengeance on the Myanmar people, which brings a whole new scale of destruction to civilian property, villages, farms, and infrastructure and will increase the humanitarian crisis. The humanitarian situation has also been made much worse by the impact of the cyclone in 2023, which killed hundreds of people and caused enormous destruction.
The challenge is getting aid to the people who need it most. UN agencies and other international actors will only deal with the Myanmar military, which means that aid has to go in through Yangon airport, which the military still controls. The military is allowing the provision of aid only to those areas it controls in and outside the major cities. But the majority of the people in need are not located in military-controlled areas, so aid is not reaching the majority of the people. Read more
