ATMIS will end on December 31, 2024, and be replaced by a new African Union Stabilization and Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). United Nations Security Council approval will have to be given this month to meet the changeover deadline. Yet the new force is unlikely to significantly degrade the long-term threat al-Shabaab poses. al-Shabaab is stronger than generally perceived and may be in a position to achieve significant large-scale success.
Author: Colin Robinson
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The AU mission’s success relies on the handover of military responsibilities to an effective Somali replacement. But the Somali National Army remains as politicized and clan-divided as it has ever been.
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The developing electoral crisis over the past few months has led to greater misuse of forces.
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A strong partnership between Mogadishu and the regions is vital to a unified counterinsurgency effort.
