To assess the prospects and risks of inter-Korean rapprochement, one needs to explain, first of all, why North Korean leaders—after scornfully rebuffing Moon Jae-in’s earlier efforts to engage Pyongyang—have switched to a more flexible policy.

In recent months, threats broadcast by the North Korean media have reached a scale that is extreme even by Pyongyang’s standards. The Korean Central News Agency warned leaders in South Korea (ROK) that “the whole of south Korea will be turned into a barren land in a moment if they dare to provoke.” In light of these threats, the question naturally arises: what do the North Korean leaders actually want to achieve?