The most concerning issue in 2016 to date has been the developing crisis between predominantly Shiite Muslim Iran and Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia.
Author: Andre Colling
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Since Paris and the Russia-Turkey incident, the stakes have dramatically increased. Rhetoric has spiked as most sides have attempted to position themselves to achieve their specific goals, without sparking a wider conflict.
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Recent polling points to the economic decline corresponding, with a drop in support for the PSUV and Maduro, who now has the approval of just a quarter of respondents.
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According to outside observers, the election comes at a time of increasing uncertainty about the future of Egypt. Domestic media reports and statements from pro-regime parties and the military instead paint a picture of a country in a state of recovery.
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Data supplied by the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy support the assumption that the national share of violence has increasingly moved from the North Sinai to wider Egypt in recent years.
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Turkey’s confrontation against ISIS, which appears to be gaining momentum, is also likely to coincide with a spike in anti-Kurdish operations.
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While ISIS’ goal of stoking sectarianism may have failed in Kuwait, its ability to infiltrate and conduct an attack in a country, which has experienced so little terrorist-related violence, is still a concern.
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The attacks come as the Saudis are embroiled in an increasingly drawn out and costly conflict against the Shiite Muslim Houthi group in Yemen and also involved in an air coalition led by the United States against ISIS in Syria.
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The origins of what has become an emerging sanctuary for jihadist activity include years of under-investment and under-development by the state and the rift between the Nile-centered Egyptian government and the distinct Bedouin-dominated Sinai region.
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Current indications are that the Yemeni people, long suffering due to numerous political and security challenges dating back to the Arab Spring, may see something akin to that witnessed since 2011 in Syria.
