As negotiators and climate leaders around the world process the outcomes of COP30, there is widespread disappointment that the parties did not agree on a roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels (TAFF). This omission reflected the complexity of the negotiating dynamics during the plenary, with other parties from Latin America confronting the Brazilian presidency over the process’s lack of transparency—an unusual dynamic for a COP. Throughout this process, the transition away from fossil fuels was a controversial issue, and it remained unresolved until the conference’s final moments.

Nonetheless, the path to phasing out fossil fuels remains open due to mounting pressure from a committed group of parties. As a compromise, the COP30 presidency announced a roadmap on the transition away from fossil fuels outside the official process and welcomed a proposal by Colombia and the Netherlands to convene a conference on this topic in April. The mounting pressure for action and the exposure this topic got at COP30 leave room to be optimistic for 2026, opening the window for more work and policy on the transition, albeit outside of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) rather than within it.

Fossil fuels are responsible for 68% of global greenhouse gas emissions. It is impossible to meet international climate goals without replacing coal, oil, and gas with cleaner alternatives such as solar and wind. At COP28 in 2023, delegates were able to agree on a call for “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade.” They also agreed on “accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power.” This language marked the first time the parties had agreed to text on ending the use of fossil fuels. It was also a political compromise guided by COP28’s Emirati presidency, reflecting a balance between parties that wanted the words “fossil fuel phaseout” and those that were opposed to any mention of fossil fuels.

Since 2023, many parties have persistently called for enhanced commitments to phase out fossil fuels. Pressure outside the halls of the UNFCCC has also been building. On day six of COP30 in Belém, activists staged a “fossil fuel funeral” at the Great People’s March outside the venue. Yet these calls have not led to progress in formal climate negotiations. COP30 is the second consecutive climate summit, following COP29 in Baku, that produced an outcome text that did not mention fossil fuels at all.

Two Weeks in Belém

The transition away from fossil fuels was central to discussions at COP30 over the two weeks from November 10th to 21st. In the leader’s summit held just before the official negotiations, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva proposed two roadmaps: one on transitioning away from fossil fuels and one on halting and reversing deforestation by 2030. The proposals were supported early on by several negotiating groups, including the Independent Association of Latin America and the Caribbean (AILAC), the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), and the six-member Environmental Integrity Group (EIG).

Momentum behind a roadmap steadily grew, with both Colombia and Brazil playing leadership roles. Early on in the conference, Colombia reached out to countries across the world to rally support for a declaration on transitioning away from fossil fuels. During Sunday’s day of rest, the Brazilian presidency distributed a summary note on its consultations in which an unnamed roadmap was first introduced as an option. In the following days, the presidency worked to include a roadmap in the official outcome document, whether in the “cover decision” or somewhere else like the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP) or Mitigation Work Programme (MWP).

However, there were reports that the Brazilian team was divided on whether to push for a roadmap in the outcome document, with Environment Minister Marina Silva in favor and others opposed. COP CEO Ana Toni explained that such a roadmap was a red line for many countries, without specifying which. The presidency cited opposition from around 80 countries, though others cast doubt on this number. The Like-Minded Development Countries (LMDC), Arab States, and Russia were the most vocal in their opposition. In the face of this opposition, some observers noted as early as Saturday that moving the roadmap outside of the official text might speed up the process.

At the same time, supporters of a roadmap continued pushing for its inclusion. On Tuesday of the second week, a ministerial press conference by a large coalition of countries, highlighted that over 80 countries supported a roadmap. On Friday, Colombia headed a press conference with a subset of the most ambitious countries to present the Belém Declaration for Transitioning away from Fossil Fuels, demanding a concrete roadmap alongside high-profile climate leaders such as the United Kingdom’s Ed Miliband and the Marshall Islands’ Tina Stege. The same day, Colombia and the Netherlands announced that they would co-host the First International Conference on the Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels in Santa Marta, Colombia, in April 2026—though not without controversy, as the conference will also address the proposal for a Fossil Fuel Treaty, which some worry could serve to replace rather than complement the Paris Agreement.

Despite this pressure, as ministers and heads of delegations met with the presidency during the final days of the conference, Brazil released sections of text with no mention of a fossil fuel roadmap. This caused an uproar among several negotiation groups and civil society. A group of at least 29 parties, including major players, sent a letter to the presidency announcing that they would not support an outcome without a fossil fuel roadmap. Tense negotiations stretched past COP’s official closing on Friday evening and went all night. Observers eagerly awaited news of a compromise, but few believed that language on the roadmap would be reintroduced into the official text. As the plenary commenced on Saturday afternoon, it appeared that few or no changes had been made to the official text. The closest it came to mentioning a transition away from fossil fuels were references to the “United Arab Emirates consensus” reached at COP28.

COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago also announced that the presidency would develop two roadmaps outside of the official negotiation process: one on halting and reversing deforestation and one on transitioning away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly, and equitable manner. He added that the roadmaps would be designed to align with Colombia and the Netherlands’ upcoming summit. While this approach gave the roadmap a lower status, it provides a new opening to discuss this topic outside the halls of the UNFCCC. It could follow the path of many other good initiatives that were born on the borders of official processes only to be brought inside them once they matured and gathered more support.

Looking Ahead to COP31

The call to end the fossil fuel era picked up momentum in Belém. More than 80 countries from every corner of the globe forcefully called for centering a topic that had been unpalatable at COPs only a few years prior. The Brazilian roadmap and contributions from the international community could accelerate progress toward a concrete outcome at COP31.

There are two key opportunities for building momentum on the transition away from fossil fuels in the lead-up to the next COP. One is the conference in Colombia in April. Another is the pre-COP meeting in the Pacific proposed by Australia to spotlight the concerns of the region ahead of COP31 in Türkiye. These meetings can help consolidate a new, broad coalition of countries willing to step up and provide renewed leadership and drive policymaking on this controversial topic. Ultimately, a robust roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels is essential to keeping global warming below 1.5°C.