Key Global Events to Watch in August

At the start of every month, the Global Observatory posts a list of key upcoming meetings and events that have implications for global affairs.

 

 

Aug 1: European treaty on violence against women comes into force, Europe 

The first European treaty to specifically target violence against women and domestic violence, known as the Istanbul Convention, will come into force on August 1 following the 10th ratification by Andorra. The convention closes the gap in the protection of fundamental human rights of women by requiring state parties to prevent violence, protect victims, prosecute the perpetrators, and to co-ordinate any such measures through comprehensive policies. As it enters into force, the convention has so far been signed by 36 states, of which 13 have already ratified it.

Aug 2: Afghan President Karzai’s term scheduled to end, Kabul

On August 2, incumbent Afghan President Hamid Karzai is scheduled to step down after 13 years in power, even as an international audit of over 8 million votes to determine the winner in the presidential vote is still underway. Karzai has reportedly reiterated his intention to stick to the August 2 deadline, despite the fact that the auditing deal brokered by US Secretary of State John Kerry has been marred by both criticism and delays. Whether the audit will be completed by then, or whether Karzai will step down, are still open questions, but the date is expected to bring some new development to the impasse. 

Aug 3-4: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Nepal, Kathmandu

India’s newly-elected Prime Minister Narendra Modi will pay an official visit to Nepal, marking the first official bilateral visit by an Indian prime minister to Kathmandu in 17 years. Modi’s visit will seek to strengthen ties with Nepal as part of a regional outreach strategy and, after June’s visit to Bhutan, it is his second official bilateral visit since he took office in May. Some sources suggest that India’s overture toward its neighbors is part of a strategy to counter China’s influence in the region. One of the primary issues the two heads of state are likely to discuss is Beijing’s role in Nepal. These same sources point to how Nepal’s strategic importance for India may have come under attack in light of China’s recent efforts to enlarge its strategic footprint there.



With Heartland Threatened, Lebanon’s Shiites See Hezbollah as “Protector of the Community”: Q&A with Sahar Atrache

A poster in Syria of President Bashar al-Assad and Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah. (omarr/Flickr)

The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has engaged in intense fighting on the Syria-Lebanon border in recent weeks, as violence increasingly threatens to spill into the group’s heartland in Lebanon’s northeastern Bekaa Valley. As the Shiite militia clashed with Syrian rebel forces, including the al-Nusra Front, reports also emerged suggesting that the nephew of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had been killed during the clashes.

Despite its heavy involvement in a war that increasingly shows signs of violent spillover into Lebanon, Hezbollah has been able to retain a great deal of support from the Lebanese Shiite population, said Sahar Atrache, Lebanon analyst for the International Crisis Group, in a recent interview with the Global Observatory. Ms. Atrache, who is based in Beirut, indicated that the heavy casualties suffered by Lebanon’s Shiites because of the Syrian conflict have not altered the fact that Hezbollah is seen as “the protector of the community” against Sunni extremism.



Countering Terrorism Amid a Surge of Extremism: Q&A With Richard Barrett

The militant group the Islamic State has used social media, videos, and pamphlets in its recruitment efforts. Above: a screenshot from one of their videos. (YouTube)

The extremist groups gaining ground in Iraq and Syria have benefited from the Arab Spring uprisings by reframing the aspirations and disappointments of marginalized youth to gain support, said Richard Barrett in this Q&A with the Global Observatory. Mr. Barrett helped establish the system-wide United Nations working group on terrorism known as the Counter Terrorism Implementation Task Force, and also served as coordinator of the UN’s al-Qaeda and Taliban Monitoring Team.

In this interview, Mr. Barrett noted the limited impact that the UN’s counterterrorism strategy has had in some countries but said that the strategy itself should not change. He also discussed the role of governments and the Islamic faith in sectarian violence.

Mr. Barrett, now Senior Vice President of the Soufan Group, was interviewed by Michael R. Snyder, research assistant with the Center for Peace Operations at the International Peace Institute.



MH17 Tragedy Could Accelerate Deterioration of Geopolitical Relations

A makeshift memorial at Amsterdam Schiphol Airport for the victims of the Malaysian Airlines flight MH17, July 20, 2014. (Roman Boed/Flickr)

The horrific human tragedy of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 (MH17), which was shot down over rebel-held territory in eastern Ukraine, risks to be remembered as the accelerator of today’s deteriorating geopolitical relations between Russia and the West.

All indicators point toward a renewed Cold War between the East and the West, where the new dividers are not the –isms of the past (Capitalism vs. Communism), but the economic and political interests of the present.

In fact, while some have suggested the MH17 tragedy is an opportunity for Russian President Vladimir Putin to cut his support to the rebel groups in east Ukraine, it is very unlikely. He still sees Russia’s influence over Ukraine and the prevention of it joining NATO as a national security interest. He still finds the global order that emerged from the end of the Cold War unacceptable, and will continue to undermine it. Other countries, including China, will ride with the tide.



Is a Ceasefire in the Gaza Strip Feasible?

Soldiers in the Israel Defense Forces are briefed during a search for tunnels in the Gaza Strip, July 19, 2014. (IDF)

After truce negotiations brokered by Egypt last week and a brief humanitarian ceasefire promoted by UN Special Coordinator Robert Serry failed to bring about an agreement between the parties to stop the hostilities, the Israeli government decided to launch a ground invasion in the eastern perimeter of the Gaza Strip. Its main goal has been the destruction of dozens of tunnels that the Palestinian militias had dug underneath this area over the last few years. Some of the tunnels have offensive purposes—their exits are located on the Israeli side–though most of them are defensive, allowing the militias to move underground and avoid detection by Israel Defense Forces (IDF) drones and observation points along the security fence.

The ground offensive started right after the IDF foiled a spectacular attempt by thirteen commandos of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades to infiltrate Israeli territory in a very similar way the Popular Resistance Committees did in June 2006 when they kidnapped the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. The fact that this attempt took place a few hours before the beginning of the five-hour humanitarian ceasefire that had been agreed upon through Serry's mediation, and that it was captured on camera and broadcast widely on TV and social media, made the ground invasion unavoidable. Even Israel's military intelligence experts were amazed by the degree of sophistication of the tunnel networks.



Leaders Agree on Immunity for Themselves During Expansion of African Court

The opening ceremony of the 23rd Ordinary Session of the African Union in Malabo, Equatorial Guinea, June 26, 2014. (African Union)

The tension between African leaders and the International Criminal Court (ICC) reached a new high at the 23rd Ordinary Summit of the Assembly of the African Union (AU), held on June 26-27, 2014 in Malabo, Equatorial Guinea, where regional leaders formalized an expansion of the African court of justice and human rights' jurisdiction to include international crimes; they also proclaimed their return to the internationally-abandoned principle of immunity for serving heads of state or government and other senior officials from prosecution of the same crimes. These changes had already been adopted by African justice ministers and attorneys general in May in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, through a series of amendments to the 2008 protocol that established the court.

Far from easing strained relations between African governments and human rights defenders and supporters of the international justice system around the world, the revised protocol puts further at risk thousands of African men, women, and children who are already threatened by grave and massive human rights abuses, some of which are perpetrated by state security agencies.



UN at "Heart of the Dysfunction" in Humanitarian Aid, New Report Finds

After fleeing heavy fighting, thousands of displaced Sudanese receive rations of emergency food aid, Agok, Sudan, May 21, 2008. (UN Photo/Tim McKulka)

The humanitarian system is failing people in places affected by conflict, and the UN is “at the heart of the dysfunction.” These are some of the claims made by Sandrine Tiller and Sean Healy in their latest report for Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), also known as Doctors Without Borders. The report, Where Is Everyone? Responding to Emergencies in the Most Difficult Places, offers a blunt critique of the humanitarian system today.

Ms. Tiller, a humanitarian adviser for MSF in the United Kingdom, spoke to me over the phone about her findings and addressed some of the criticisms that the report has received. What follows is an edited version of our conversation.



On Korean Peninsula, Focus Should Be on Unification Not Provocation: Q&A with Sue Terry

North Korea appears as a dark expanse between South Korea (right) and China (upper left), except for Pyongyang (bright dot at center). Taken from the International Space Station, January 30, 2014 (NASA)

Last week, the North Korean regime resumed its policy of provocation and destabilization on the Korean Peninsula by firing two ballistic missiles into the eastern sea and over 100 rockets and artillery shells off its east coast; the missiles landed within a few hundred yards of the South Korean border.

I spoke about these developments and their implications for security on the Korean Peninsula with Sue Terry, currently a research scholar at Columbia University’s Weatherhead Institute and formerly a Central Intelligence Agency officer and director of Korea, Japan, and Oceanic Affairs at the National Security Council. In this interview, Ms. Terry discusses her recent article, where she argues that North and South Korea, as well as the regional powers, should focus on unifying the two countries.

What follows is an edited version of our conversation, which took place last week.

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